Adrian Atkinson and Ben Bruning analyzed what last year’s fantasy football record meant for a team’s chances of making the playoffs.
For example, in Week 1, a win put your playoff chances at 61.9 percent, while a loss dropped them to 38.1 percent in a 12-team league where half of the squads make the postseason. Their research also found that teams starting 3-0 made the playoffs 84.8 percent of the time while winless teams after Week 3 had just a 15.5 percent chance.
[Here’s the perfect 2015 fantasy football draft]
A similar analysis done at Fantasy Football Impact found that in a 10-team league where the top four teams, based on their win/loss record, earned a position in the championship bracket, the magic number was eight wins.
Of the 73 teams (15.9%) who earned an 8-6 record, 49 (67%) qualified for the championship bracket of the playoffs and 24 (33%) participated in the consolation bracket. Of those 49 teams that competed in the championship bracket, 11 (22.4%) were strong enough to win their league’s championship. 15 teams (30.6%) finished in 2nd place while 12 teams (24.5%) took 3rd place. 11 teams (22.4%) did not win a game in the playoffs and finished in 4th place.
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