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Those
who determine these odds have one goal: to predict which N.F.L. team
will win and by how much, including the total number of points that will
be scored, and a lot of research goes into it. But it is important to remember that like anything else determined by humans, it is not going to be perfect.
Most
important, from a fantasy perspective, is to look at the games
predicted to be high scoring. You still have to figure out which players
are going to be involved in that scoring, but that is where we will try
to help.
This
week, the consensus choice by the oddsmakers for the highest scoring
game is the Atlanta Falcons-Philadelphia Eagles (55.5 combined points).
Keep reading to see how we think players like Matt Ryan and DeMarco
Murray might fare.
If
you are new to this column, a reminder that the players below are not
the players we think will do the best or worst at their positions this
week. They are just players we either like or do not like based on whom
they are playing against and other factors.
If you do want an ordered list of players, we will publish player rankings each week. While past performance is no guarantee of future success, our player rankings were the fifth most accurate in 2014 out of 125 fantasy football experts graded and are tied for the most accurate over all since 2012.
We will also answer as many of your lineup questions all season on Twitter.
These player rankings from the Sablich brothers are for
standard and PPR scoring formats and will be updated throughout the
season.
Favorable Matchups
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. Philadelphia — Ryan
opens the season at home in what should be a shootout against the
Eagles. In fact, this game is projected to be the highest scoring game
of the week, according to oddsmakers, with two strong offensives mixing with two poor defensive units. The Eagles allowed the second most passing yards per game in 2014 (265), second only to Atlanta (280), and were the third best matchup for opposing fantasy quarterbacks.
Tony Romo (DAL) vs. Giants —
When these two teams get together, the defenses never seem to show up.
The Cowboys scored 31 points in each of last year’s meetings, with Romo
totaling 554 yards and seven touchdowns. He will look to exploit a
Giants secondary that figures to be even worse than it was last season,
after season-ending injuries to Bennett Jackson, Mykkele Thompson and
Justin Currie this preseason.
Eli Manning (NYG) vs. Dallas — It
has been a typically poor preseason for Manning and the Giants offense,
but a date with Dallas could get things turned around. Manning
countered Romo last season with 248 yards and three touchdowns in Week
7, and 338 yards and three touchdowns in Week 12. Dallas’s secondary is
arguably in worse shape than the Giants’. With their best cornerback, Orlando Scandrick, lost for the season, the Cowboys are forced to roll with Brandon Carr (ProFootballFocus.com’s 13th worst cornerback in 2014), the rookie Byron Jones and the often-injured cornerback Morris Claiborne.
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) vs. Washington — Coming
off a near-perfect preseason, completing 33 of 41 pass attempts (80.4
percent) for 303 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, he
should continue to shine against last season’s most favorable fantasy
quarterback matchup. In 2014, the Redskins allowed the fourth highest
completion rate (66.5) and the most passing touchdowns (35) and had the
fourth fewest interceptions (7).
Running Back
Jeremy Hill (CIN) vs. Oakland — The Raiders allowed the third most rushing touchdowns (17) and the 11th most rushing yards per game (119) in 2014, leading to the most fantasy points allowed to running backs. Our seventh ranked running back heading into 2015, Hill should get off to a fast start against this defense.
Doug Martin (TB) vs. Tennessee —
Martin is coming off a strong preseason, with 118 yards and one
touchdown on 20 carries, and has cemented himself as the starting back
in Tampa Bay. The Titans, who rated as PFF.com’s
fourth worst run stopping unit last season, allowed the second most
rushing yards per game (137) and the second most fantasy points to
running backs.
DeMarco Murray (PHI) vs. Atlanta — In
an attempt to remedy their N.F.L.-worst defense, the Falcons brought in
the former Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. But stopping the
run could still be an issue, as this off-season’s best acquisition, the
Clemson edge rusher Vic Beasley, is projected to be more of a
situational pass rushing specialist in his first year. Murray may not
see as many carries as last season, but he will see enough to produce
strong fantasy numbers against the third best fantasy matchup from 2014.
Jonathan Stewart (CAR) vs. Jacksonville — The
Jaguars yielded 127 rushing yards per game in 2014, the sixth most in
the league. Injuries were part of the problem for the defensive line
last season, and could be again this season. Their top draft pick,
defensive end Dante Fowler Jr., is out for the year with a torn A.C.L.
and both starting defensive tackles, Roy Miller and Sen’Derrick Marks,
are attempting to return from serious injuries.
Wide Receiver
Jordan Matthews (PHI) vs. Atlanta — Atlanta
struggled against receivers in 2014, allowing the seventh most fantasy
points (24 F.P.P.G.) and the sixth most yards after the catch, and
finished as the fourth worst pass coverage unit (PFF.com). While Desmond
Trufant is emerging as one of the best cornerbacks in the game,
Matthews should mostly avoid him operating out of the slot position.
Kendall Wright (TEN) vs. Tampa Bay — After a strong preseason, Wright appears to be
the rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota’s favorite target. Tampa Bay does
feature the standout cornerback Alterraun Verner, but over all, its
secondary ranked 28th against the pass in 2014 and allowed
the third most fantasy points to opposing receivers (25.7 F.P.P.G.). The
Buccaneers also allowed receivers to catch an eye-opening 70 percent of
their passes, the highest rate in the league.
Davante Adams (GB) vs. Chicago — Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw 10 touchdown passes against the Bears’ 30th
ranked pass defense in two games last season. In each of those games,
Jordy Nelson, the man Adams is set to replace, surpassed 100 yards and
had two touchdowns. The Bears’ returning cornerbacks, Kyle Fuller and
Tim Jenkins, were part of a secondary that allowed 23.7 F.P.P.G. to the
position (11th most) and the second most touchdowns to the position (34).
Brandin Cooks (NO) vs. Arizona — The
Cardinals had the fourth worst pass defense in 2014, including the most
yards allowed after the catch (147 per game), and that was with the
talented cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who skipped town to rejoin Darrelle Revis in New York.
Arizona also lost one of the game’s top defensive minds, Todd Bowles,
to New York; cut the veteran defensive end Darnell Dockett; and let
lineman Dan Williams sign with Oakland.
Tight End
Tyler Eifert (CIN) vs. Oakland — One
of the preseason’s favorite sleeper picks at tight end performed well
this summer and gets a decent matchup with the Raiders (10th most fantasy points to TEs in 2014).
Jason Witten (DAL) vs. Giants — The
veteran should be a serviceable fantasy option in what should be a
high-scoring game against the Giants, who allowed the ninth most fantasy
points to the position in 2014, including a touchdown to Witten.
Defense/Special Teams
Carolina vs. Jacksonville, Jets vs. Cleveland, Miami vs. Washington, Cincinnati vs. Oakland
Unfavorable Matchups
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick (SF) vs. Minnesota — The Vikings were tough against quarterbacks in 2014, both through the air and on the ground. They ranked seventh against
the pass (223 Y.P.G.) and Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton and Ryan
Tannehill, quarterbacks with good wheels (like Kaepernick), combined for
78 rushing yards and 0 TDs on 21 attempts. The former Bengal Terence
Newman and the No. 11 overall pick, cornerback Trae Waynes, were key
additions to the Vikings’ solid secondary.
Philip Rivers (SD) vs. Detroit — The
Lions were the fifth worst fantasy matchup for quarterbacks in 2014
(14.1 F.P.P.G.), led in part by the All-Pro safety Glover Quin and his
N.F.L.-leading seven interceptions. Only Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron
Rodgers managed more than 20 fantasy points against Detroit in 2014 (ESPN.com standard scoring).
Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) vs. Cleveland — With
the gifted Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson still in uniform, one of the
N.F.L.’s best pass defenses should continue to cause headaches in 2015.
The Browns allowed the eighth fewest passing yards per game (224.5) and
the seventh fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks (14.4 F.P.P.G.).
Joe Flacco (BAL) vs. Denver — With
Aqib Talib and Chris Harris forming one of the top coverage tandems in
the league, Denver allowed the ninth fewest passing yards per game in
2014 (225).
Running Backs
Alfred Morris (WAS) vs. Miami — Ndamukong
Suh, the driving force behind Detroit’s top ranked run defense in 2014,
should improve Miami’s ability to stop the run in 2015. Morris also
played better last season when with a runner like Robert Griffin III at
quarterback (12.9 F.P.P.G. in nine games) than without (9.1 F.P.P.G. in
seven games). Kirk Cousins begins the season as the starter.
Justin Forsett (BAL) vs. Denver —
Losing defensive tackle Terrance Knighton is a big deal, but Denver
will still field nine starters from last season’s second best run
defense, which surrendered only 80 yards per game on the ground. The
Broncos also allowed the second fewest runs of 10 or more yards last
season.
Isaiah Crowell (CLE) vs. Jets — Crowell is slated to start the opener because he is the only healthy back on the roster,
but that is the only good news for his owners against a Jets front that
ranked fifth against the run last year (93 Y.P.G.). The Jets should be
even better in 2015 with the addition of the Southern Cal lineman
Leonard Williams, the sixth overall pick in the N.F.L. draft.
Frank Gore (IND) vs. Buffalo — Rex Ryan’s defenses have almost always fared well at stopping the run, and he inherited a talented bunch that ranked 11th
against the run last season (106 Y.P.G.). Buffalo yielded the sixth
fewest fantasy points to opposing backs in 2014, thanks in part to
allowing the sixth fewest rushing scores in the league (10).
Wide Receiver
Andre Johnson (IND) vs. Buffalo — As good as the Bills were against the run last season, they were even better against the pass (third
ranked, 206 Y.P.G.). The Bills may have lost the starters Jairus Byrd
and Da’Norris Searcy to free agency over the past two years, but the
secondary remains a strength with the former first-round pick Stephon
Gilmore, the veteran Corey Graham, Aaron Williams and the second-round
pick Ronald Darby, who will be starting in place of the injured Leodis
McKelvin. Even with McKelvin out for the final six games of last season,
no wide receiver managed to top 10 standard fantasy points against the
Bills last season.
Steve Smith (BAL) vs. Denver — Smith
and the rest of the Ravens’ pass catchers have the unfortunate task of
facing Chris Harris Jr., PFF.com’s top-ranked cornerback in 2014.
Starting opposite from Harris is cornerback Aqib Talib (12th on PFF.com).
Brandon Marshall (NYJ) vs. Cleveland — The
Browns had the top-ranked pass coverage unit in 2014 (PFF.com). Haden,
the star of Cleveland’s stellar squad, is likely to shadow Marshall in
this game.
Keenan Allen (SD) vs. Detroit — Detroit’s
Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis were top 16 cornerbacks in 2014
(PFF.com). Over all, the Lions were the eighth toughest fantasy matchup
for receivers in 2014.
Tight End
Dwayne Allen (IND) vs. Buffalo — Allen
is a touchdown-dependent fantasy tight end, and the Bills allowed only
two of them to the position all last year. Over all, Buffalo was the
toughest team for opposing fantasy tight ends to play in 2014 (4.1
F.P.P.G.).
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. Houston — In
our view, Kelce is emerging as the kind of tight end worth starting
every week, but keep expectations in check against the Texans, who held
every tight end they played last season to under 10 fantasy points.
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