2015 Fantasy Football: Tight End Preview and Rankings
Tight
end is traditionally the thinnest of the four offensive fantasy
football positions, and there seems to be even more uncertainty than
usual regarding the position heading into 2015.
Of
the top 10 tight ends selected in 2014 drafts, only four of them
finished the season in the top 10 (compared with six in 2013), and of
the four who did, only one, Rob Gronkowski, is expected to average more
than 10 standard fantasy points per game in 2015.
The
other three include Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas, who are playing in
new offenses that are expected to yield fewer fantasy riches, though
Graham’s potential in Seattle is much greater than Thomas’s in
Jacksonville. We highlight Thomas below as one of the most overvalued
tight ends heading into 2015.
The
fourth player in this group, Greg Olsen, finished fifth among tight
ends in 2014 (8.6 F.P.P.G), and we expect another top five finish this
year.
Additionally,
the top three tight ends from last season totaled 483.4 standard
fantasy points, 45.9 less than the top three accumulated in 2013. That
is significant for a position that just does not produce a lot of
fantasy points in general.
A
bounce back at the top of the tight end field will depend on how Graham
fares in the Seahawks’ conservative offense and whether someone like
Travis Kelce, one of our favorite tight ends to target in drafts, can
make the leap into the top tier.
Gronkowski,
who was the only tight end to average more than 10 F.P.P.G. last season
(12.3), is the clear No. 1 option at the position, and you cannot fault
fantasy owners willing to spend their late-first- or early-second-round
draft picks on him.
But
what do you do if you lose out on Gronkowski, do not trust Graham or do
not think Olsen or Kelce are worth late-third- or early-fourth-round
selections?
You
can get by with value picks later in the draft, especially in standard
scoring leagues, where there was only a 3.5 fantasy points per game
difference between the fifth best tight end (Olsen, 8.6 F.P.P.G.) and
the 19th best (Jermaine Gresham, 5.1 F.P.P.G.). Let’s look at
this year’s tight end field and try to locate the best and worst
values, based on the current consensus Average Draft Position, according
to fantasypros.com.
Also, if you’re preparing for your fantasy draft and missed our other position primers, see our articles on quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers.
Graphic
Football Rankings
These player rankings are for standard and PPR scoring
formats and will be updated throughout the preseason.
Overvalued
Julius Thomas (JAC) (ADP: 6) —
Thomas is no longer a part of the Peyton Manning-led offense that
ranked second in total points scored in 2014. He will now catch passes
from Blake Bortles, who managed an uninspiring unit that ranked last in
total points a year ago. Thomas acquires much of his fantasy value in
the red zone, where he hauled in 12 touchdowns with Denver last season.
Jacksonville receivers caught 15 touchdowns in 2014, so you will need to
assume Bortles is going to take a major step forward this year to draft
Thomas as a top six option. If nothing else will lower his ADP, the
recent news that he may miss the start of the season with a finger injury might.
Zach Ertz (PHI) (ADP: 10) —
Chip Kelly’s second season in Philadelphia confirmed that he prefers a
run-blocking veteran at tight end. In other words, he does not care
about your fantasy team. Brent Celek (profootballfocus.com’s
No. 2 blocking TE in 2014) saw the field 70 percent of the time
compared with the flashier Ertz’s 50 percent. This year is shaping up to
be no different, as the popular breakout pick has failed to win the
starting job over Celek for a second consecutive summer. Ertz is also
rehabbing his way back from groin surgery and is questionable for the Eagles’ Week 1 opener against the Falcons. His 5.4 weekly fantasy scoring average ranked 17th
among tight ends last season, and expecting a leap into top 10 tight
end territory from a part-time player does not make a lot of sense.
Owen Daniels (ADP: 11) — Daniels
is a fragile, 10-year veteran who is turning 33 in November and has not
had a meaningful fantasy season in two years, yet many believe he can
return to TE1 form now that he is playing with Peyton Manning. Wear and
tear issues aside, Daniels will have to share the field with the
fourth-year tight end Virgil Green, which is worse than it seems
considering Green is the superior run blocker and the Broncos are
expected to emphasize the run this season. Health permitting, Daniels is
in for some big games, but counting on reliable weekly production from
an aging veteran entrenched in a time share is likely to leave owners
frustrated.
Undervalued
Delanie Walker (TEN) (ADP: 12) —
Fantasy’s eighth best fantasy tight end last season averaged 7.5
standard fantasy points per game while setting career highs in targets
(106), receptions (63) and yards (890). That’s not too shabby,
considering Tennessee’s stable of lackluster quarterbacks ranked 29th
in total passing yards and offense efficiency, as well as a combined 81
quarterback ranking, which was the seventh lowest in the league. The
No. 2 overall pick, Marcus Mariota, is a clear upgrade at the
quarterback position, and with Kendall Wright as his only major
competition for targets, Walker is a good bet to surpass 2014’s career
marks.
Tyler Eifert (CIN) (ADP: 17) — The former first-round pick has received glowing camp reviews this summer, with Bengals.com’s
Geoff Hobson stating that “nobody has been able to cover” him and that
he appears to be morphing into Andy Dalton’s safety valve “whenever he’s
in a jam or needs a big play.” Eifert should see plenty of open space
with opposing teams focused on stopping A.J. Green, and he could easily
end up trailing only him as the team leader in targets. There’s TE1
upside here, similar to what Travis Kelce provided in 2014, lurking in
the 10th or 11th round.
Larry Donnell (NYG) (ADP: 25) — Giants tight ends, including Kevin Boss and Jake Ballard, have never finished lower than 17th over all in standard fantasy scoring during Eli Manning’s 10-year career, yet Donnell is being selected as the 25th
tight end option, on average. While his rookie season was an
up-and-down affair, he proved he is capable of generating a handful of
big games in this offense, and concluded the 2014 season as fantasy’s 11th
best tight end. With Rueben Randle entering his fourth season and still
struggling to reach his full potential, and Victor Cruz no lock to
return to previous form, there is still room in the offense for Donnell
to develop into a more reliable option.
Worth Avoiding
Jordan Cameron (MIA) (ADP: 8) — With
all of the question marks surrounding the position after the consensus
top five picks, Cameron is an attractive pick on paper. After all, he is
expected to play a big role in Miami’s offense and is just one year
removed from being a top-four fantasy tight end. The problem is his
seventh-round price tag, which seems high for an injury-prone player
transitioning to a new team. Cameron has yet to play a full 16-game
season in his four-year career and has endured three concussions over
the last two seasons. There are much safer bets, like Walker and Eifert,
going two to three rounds later.
Dwayne Allen (IND) (ADP: 9) —
Allen is being drafted as a clear-cut TE1 option despite his time share
with Coby Fleener and his proneness to injury (14 games played in the
last two seasons). While Allen has a knack for scoring touchdowns (nine
in his last 13 games), his fantasy usefulness depends on them, as he
does not see enough consistent targets to yield reliable TE1 numbers. We
would be content with Allen as a solid TE2 selection but will avoid him
at this high price.
Heath Miller (MIA) (ADP: 18) — Unlike
the previous two tight ends mentioned, our beef has nothing to do with
the asking price. Miller’s ceiling is simply caving in as he enters his
age 33 season. Miller has managed just four touchdowns over the last two
seasons, and has reached double-digit fantasy points just twice in
standard leagues over that same time. Why settle for nonexistent upside
this late in your draft when you can take a chance on a more intriguing
option like Charles Clay, Josh Hill or Austin Seferian-Jenkins?
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